Decision-Making Under Pressure: Navigating Policy Shifts in Canadian Higher Education

Sudden shifts in government focus and policy are nothing new - but they, like all unforeseen challenges, can cause teams to react, and often this brings panic.

A sudden policy shift in Canada is shaking many universities’ ability to maintain a diverse and vibrant international community. In an election year, our government has decided to cut international student permits by about 35% to stabilize growth. As a result, we're facing unique challenges head-on​​​​​​.

This move, aimed at managing international student growth and easing pressures on available housing, has profound implications. While there is a benefit to ensuring a reputation for Canadian academic excellence is protected by unscrupulous schools, our reputable institutions may be caught in the crossfire.  Our universities and polytechnics that have long benefited from the cultural and fiscal influx of a diverse student body now find routine enrollment strategies create major strategic hurdles.  This will have far-reaching implications for Canadian higher education and its place on resumes abroad. The challenge extends beyond visa student reduction, encompassing complex layers like new entry rules, changes to know regulatory mechanisms, competitive responses from other countries or alternative schooling, loss of an accepted if not expected educational route for many families, and shifting student perceptions.  The effect will be complex and alter both the global and local educational landscape.

And why? Besides the practical educational and community motives - there is undoubtedly a political game here.  Some politicians are playing to a base of voters who are critical of the ease of entry a student visa provides and fearful of the impact of immigration.  There are obvious racial and nationalistic undertones. As such, the move is not only disruptively swift but polarizing in an increasingly polarized society.  This move may unwittingly pit educational institutions against each other, and the very communities they serve.

In navigating these policy shifts, our guiding principle is to lead calmly and openly, ensuring that every decision we make is built on a foundation of 'inclusive trust'.  To maintain trust we must demonstrate rigorous logic, show up honestly and authentically, and demonstrate empathy for our colleagues and stakeholders. 

The Leadership Impact:
Facing the extrinsic challenge of reducing international student permits requires a calm and measured approach that preserves community, justice, academic excellence, and efficiency.  In the face of what could be described as a crisis, academic leadership must maintain a rational and structured decision-making process. 

It is important to take an approach ensuring schools can navigate these complex times effectively, safeguarding our institutions' long-term health and success. Teams need options and optimism. 

All change can be good - and the chance to emerge even stronger than before - but this requires shared intent.

The Decision Quality Framework:
An effective methodical approach to decision-making is vital. Where emotions are high, it benefits us to double down on logic.  One logic-focused tool is employing a Decision Quality framework. They can come in several flavours, but in general these models guide us through a process of setting shared goals, exploring alternatives, collecting data, clarifying values and trade-offs, applying logical reasoning, and committing to action. Structures that help us see context help put emotion in its place - as one contributing factor.  

Don’t let emotion drive the bus. It's critical to embrace scenario planning, especially when data is scarce. Collective insights, early signal detection, and modelling help us navigate these uncertainties, highlighting the importance of preparedness over data reliance.

When change triggers a strategic decision, the value of that decision is high… the potential for fear to cut and scar an organization is high. The antidote to fear is knowledge - and providing a frame so that everyone can consume that knowledge contextually leads to a shared understanding of the problem and solution.

The Decision Quality model identifies six elements essential for making important, strategic, high-quality decisions:

• Establish the correct shared frame, encompassing purpose, perspective, and scope.
• Explore various alternatives.
• Collect meaningful data from multiple sources.
• Understand values and trade-offs.
• Apply logical reasoning.
• Build conviction to follow through.

In urgent situations, we often respond swiftly and instinctively. However, decision quality requires that our level of rigour correspond to the significance of the issue at hand. With practice, this is efficient - rigour and speed are not mutually exclusive.

Decision-Making Under Duress:
Calling for calm, rationality, openness and logic in a crisis can be met with scoffs by those who feel alone. They will tell you they have no voice, no choice, and few options.  We must bring them into the fold.

Navigating divergent opinions on such impactful decisions demands a focus on maintaining healthy working relationships. The journey towards a decision is as critical as the outcome. Embracing openness, trust, and understanding is key to constructively managing these disagreements.

It's crucial to recognize that even well-considered decisions in scenarios with no perfect solutions. The situation is fluid, and variables are unknown. Calm, deliberate leadership is essential in these situations, encouraging thoughtful decision-making and fostering an environment where discussion prevails over panic. Universities are now choosing between various less-than-optimal options, each with its own set of risks. But change is inevitable. So, if we’re going to act, we must squeeze as much value out of the situation as possible.

Never waste a good crisis.

Responding to the challenge of reduced international student permits necessitates a rational decision-making approach because hasty, emotion-driven decisions can be risky.

Risks of Irrational Decision-Making:

• Compromised Long-term Strategy: Quick, emotion-driven decisions can derail long-term university goals and sustainability.
• Financial Instability: Rash decisions may harm the financial stability that international students contribute significantly to through tuition and spending.
• Damage to Institutional Reputation: Reactions that seem unconsidered can tarnish the reputation of universities celebrated for their diversity.
• Impact on Domestic Student Experience: A rich, diverse learning environment, bolstered by international students, could be diminished by rapid changes.
• Employee Morale and Retention: Abrupt changes can negatively impact Faculty and staff morale, which is crucial to delivering quality education.
• Legal and Compliance Risks: Quick decisions can overlook crucial legal and compliance factors, leading to potential legal challenges.
• Strained International Relations: How these changes are executed can impact relationships with international educational and governmental partners.

The Communication Risk:
Open and clear communication is vital during crises where the details are fuzzy. Sharing what we know fosters informed decision-making, ensuring no valuable insight is overlooked. 

In the context of leadership and business, communication risks can significantly impact an organization's effectiveness, reputation, and relationships. Here are some key aspects of communication risks:

• Misinterpretation: Information can be misinterpreted due to unclear messaging, resulting in confusion or misaligned actions.
• Information Overload: Bombarding stakeholders with too much information can lead to key messages being lost or ignored.
• Cultural Misunderstandings: In a diverse workplace, messages might not take into account cultural differences, leading to unintended offence or confusion.
• Leaks of Sensitive Information: Unintentional or unauthorized disclosure of confidential information can have legal, financial, and reputational consequences.
• Inconsistent Messaging: Discrepancies in communication across different levels or departments of an organization can create confusion and mistrust.
• Non-compliance with Regulations: Failure to communicate in accordance with legal and regulatory requirements can result in penalties and damage to reputation.
• Technological Failures: Reliance on technology for communication can pose risks if there are system failures or security breaches.
• Ineffective Crisis Communication: Poor communication during a crisis can exacerbate the situation and damage an organization’s reputation.
• Neglecting Non-Verbal Cues: In face-to-face or video communications, non-verbal cues are crucial. Ignoring these can lead to misunderstandings.
• Feedback Loops: Lack of effective feedback mechanisms can prevent organizations from recognizing and addressing misunderstandings or the ineffectiveness of their communications.

​Managing communication risks involves clear, consistent, and culturally sensitive messaging, using appropriate channels, and ensuring feedback mechanisms are in place.  You may be faced with a nebulous future while waiting for details to emerge - don’t add to the static with sloppy communication.

Behaviours that Maintain Rationality:
When an institution is rocked at a strategic level, no one is unaffected - and everyone has a role to play.

Capturing individual insights early is key to avoiding groupthink and expanding the range of potential solutions by considering diverse perspectives. We may have had the luxury of tolerating less-than-ideal behaviour before… when a crisis is upon us, that luxury evaporates. Your university leaders should get together and reassert a few key expectations among themselves:

• Use Data-Driven Decisions to understand the full impact of changes.
  We can't wait for perfect data to develop one perfect way forward; we must use all the facets of we know now to shape potential paths, refining them as more data becomes available.  This is a group effort.
  
  
• Engage in Stakeholder Engagement to incorporate diverse viewpoints.
  In a crisis, silence is not golden, it’s deadly. Putting all information on the table is crucial, ensuring every voice is heard and every perspective considered. To do this, we must cut through old resistances, biases, and cliques - and embody the collegial spirit.
  
  
• Employ Strategic Thinking to align with long-term visions.
  “Strategy before structure.”
  Ensure you look beyond the immediate.  Consider assumptions that shape our decisions and ask if they are concrete.  A good strategy will include aligning tactical and operational practices to deliver a long-term vision and values. Band-aid and duct-tape solutions simply bolted onto old processes will create more chaos down the road.
  Don’t let “we’ve always done it that way” determine what’s possible. Counter intuitively its innovation that is aligned with our values and vision that offers firm grounding and confidence.
  
  
• Practice Emotional Intelligence to balance emotions with rational judgment.
  To prevent groupthink, we must gather insights early, before a few dominant ideas take hold, ensuring we explore the full spectrum of possibilities - and that means welcoming all voices to the table. Empathy is critical in this regard.
  
  
• Implement Scenario Planning to prepare for multiple likely outcomes.
  By envisioning different outcomes, we can create flexible strategies that adapt to any situation. This isn't just about predicting the future; it's about being prepared for it, ensuring that we're ready to pivot and pull the right lever.  Maintaining optionality and open-mindedness is the backbone of a strong decision-making process - timing action when the balance of facts gives us the certainty of action.  But it has options that help us realize, “We will work the problem - the problem won’t work us.”
  
  

Maintaining your wits in a crisis can be a remarkable opportunity to grow as a leader, a team or an institution. A period of adversity can bring into stark relief the behaviours that make sense and contribute to everyone’s success. Barriers to inclusion and camaraderie are actually broken down because what was a point of friction before is suddenly not as consequential, and we have a window to bring out the best in people.

Conclusion:
While facing the challenge of reduced international student permits, maintaining a rational and structured decision-making process is essential. This approach ensures we can navigate these complex times effectively, safeguarding our institutions' long-term health and success.

If you take one thing away from this article, let it be that preserving “inclusive trust” among your leaders in times of turmoil is far more effective than attempting to rebuild trust after the threat has passed. When faced with a sudden nebulous threat, calm, welcoming dialogue and collaborative planning can tie our individual perspectives together to create clear choices.  This gives the entire team a feeling of representation, support and agency - and this can carry them through until we finally deploy the best decision and once again find stability.

​Ultimately, your way forward may not be how they or you envisioned it… but you will all know it is the best decision you can take.